Deidre Samson

Deidre Samson
Director – Future-Fit Consulting. South Africa.

1. How would you explain “strategic foresight” to an entrepreneur who has never heard of it? Why is it critical for businesses today?

Strategic foresight is the structured, forward-looking practice of exploring multiple plausible futures to inform better decisions today. It combines elements of futures thinking, trend analysis, scenario planning and systems thinking, enabling entrepreneurs to anticipate disruption, identify emerging opportunities and adapt with agility in uncertain environments.

Rather than attempting to predict the future, foresight invites you to imagine a range of possible futures, both desirable and disruptive, and to develop strategies that are resilient, flexible and aligned with long-term goals.

1.1 Why is this essential for entrepreneurs?

In today’s world, change is non-linear. Technology, climate, regulation and social norms are all shifting at once and the lead time to respond is shrinking. As the We are operating in an era of “polycrisis”: overlapping disruptions across economics, health, geopolitics and the environment. In this context, short-term thinking alone can leave businesses flat-footed or blindsided.

Entrepreneurs often focus on product development, fundraising and immediate growth. But without foresight, they risk building solutions for a world that no longer exists.

1.2. What does strategic foresight look like in practice?

Foresight equips entrepreneurs with the tools to:

Scan the horizon for weak signals, emerging technologies and societal shifts
Challenge assumptions about the market, the customer or their business model
Explore alternative futures through scenario development
Backcast from preferred futures to identify near-term decisions and innovations
Stress-test strategies against disruption (e.g., supply chain collapse, regulatory shifts, AI advancement)

Example: During the COVID-19 pandemic, Airbnb used foresight to identify a pivot opportunity. While travel collapsed, the company reoriented its platform toward long-term stays and local getaways two trends it had been tracking. This shift became central to its post-pandemic resurgence.

2. Many entrepreneurs focus on short-term survival. How can they balance immediate needs with long-term future proofing?

Example: Companies like Lego and Ford Motor Company now embed foresight teams into strategy development. Lego’s foresight unit uses global trend analysis and ethnographic futures research to shape new product lines and experiential offerings.

The accelerating pace of technological advancement and societal change has driven many entrepreneurs into a state of “nowism” – a mindset that prioritises immediate concerns over longer-term strategic thinking. While understandable, this short-term bias can become a liability in environments marked by volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA).

As futurist Alvin Toffler noted, “The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn and relearn.” In times of disruption, relying on historical models often leads to rigid thinking. Entrepreneurs revert to familiar strategies that may no longer be fit for purpose, inadvertently increasing their exposure to risk.

This echoes Isaac Asimov’s caution: “No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be.” In a world of constant change, short-term decision-making must be informed by an understanding of long-term direction.

Strategic foresight bridges this gap. It allows entrepreneurs to hold two timeframes in tension:

Immediate operational demands (cash flow, customer retention, etc.)
A long-range vision informed by trend analysis, scenario planning, and future opportunity mapping. Practically, this means embedding foresight into decision cycles.

Tools like the Three Horizons Framework are especially valuable:

Horizon 1 focuses on core operations – what needs to be protected and optimized today.
Horizon 2 surfaces adjacent innovations – what needs to be experimented with.
Horizon 3 explores transformational shifts – what disruptions may define the future.

For example, Amazon’s early investment in AWS was a Horizon 3 move. It was made while the company was still refining e-commerce logistics, yet it created an entirely new value proposition that ultimately transformed their business model.

Organisations with a strong future orientation significantly outperform their peers in both growth and profitability. These organisations allocate resources not just to immediate wins but to capability building, resilience and innovation pipelines.

Balancing survival and futureproofing doesn’t require a trade-off, it requires integration. Entrepreneurs must cultivate the discipline to periodically step back, scan for signals of change, test their assumptions and align today’s actions with tomorrow’s possibilities. In doing so, they don’t just survive, they become fit for the future.

3. What’s one practical foresight exercise a startup founder could do in an afternoon to start thinking more strategically?

One of the most accessible and effective foresight exercises a startup founder can do in just a few hours is the “Scan and Make Sense” activity. This powerful process helps move decision-making from gut instinct to informed insight by engaging systematically with change.

Step 1: PESTLE Trend Scanning

Start by conducting a PESTLE scan, a structured framework used to identify and categorize external forces that may impact your business.

It focuses on six key domains:

P – Political: e.g., trade policies, data regulation, political instability

E – Economic: e.g., inflation, funding availability, currency volatility

S – Social: e.g., changing customer expectations, generational values

T – Technological: e.g., AI, automation, platform innovation

L – Legal: e.g., intellectual property rights, employment law

E – Environmental: e.g., climate shifts, sustainability mandates

Ask: Which trends are emerging in each category that could influence our customers, industry or operating model in the next 3 – 5 years?

Example: A health tech founder might identify “AI-driven diagnostics” (Technological), “data privacy legislation” (Legal) and “ageing populations” (Social) as trends with potential impact.

This scanning exercise not only broadens awareness, but begins to surface strategic blind spots, hidden risks and unexpected opportunities.

Step 2: A Strategic Reflection Question

Once you’ve identified a trend that feels particularly relevant or disruptive, pause and ask: “If this trend accelerates, how would it change the way we deliver value and what should we do today to prepare?”

This reflection connects foresight to immediate action. It encourages founders to think beyond awareness and begin experimenting, adapting or reallocating resources.

Why It Matters for Startup Founders

Humans tend to think in straight lines, we spot a trend and assume its effects will be predictable. But in reality, change unfolds through interconnected systems, where one shift triggers a cascade of second, third and fourth-order impacts.

By scanning trends across PESTLE domains and applying this strategic question, startup founders begin to:

Build strategic resilience instead of just reacting

Anticipate unintended consequences

Test and challenge their assumptions

Uncover new markets, partnerships or capabilities

This kind of thinking is particularly vital in the early stages of a business, when choices about products, platforms and partnerships can lock in patterns that either enable or constrain future growth.

In an afternoon, a founder can use a PESTLE scan to sharpen their awareness of change, then apply a single strategic question to begin aligning today’s priorities with tomorrow’s possibilities. It’s a small time investment with long-term strategic payoff.

4. What emerging trends (e.g., tech, societal shifts) do you believe entrepreneurs are underestimating right now?

In a world moving faster than ever, some of the biggest risks for entrepreneurs come not from competition, but from failing to see the next wave of change early enough. While entrepreneurs are rightly focused on product development, funding and customer growth, the businesses that scale sustainably are those that can spot what’s next before everyone else.

Here are three powerful trends that every entrepreneur should be watching right now:

AI Is No Longer a Tool, it’s Becoming the Operating System of Business

AI, especially generative AI and applied AI, is moving from the sidelines into the heart of how businesses work. According to McKinsey’s 2025 tech outlook, AI could add up to $4.4 trillion in annual value globally. But most startups are only scratching the surface, using AI for basic automation or marketing support.

What’s often underestimated is that AI is reshaping:

How customers engage (chatbots, hyper-personalization)
How products are designed (co-creation with users)
How teams work (AI as collaborator, not just automator)

Example: Early-stage startups are already building entire business models around AI-first operations. They move faster and scale leaner because AI is baked into their core.

Ask: How could AI change your entire category. What happens if your biggest competitor becomes an AI-native company?

Consumer Trust Is Fragmenting and Communities Are the New Brands

Today’s customers, especially younger generations, are sceptical of traditional brand messaging. They look to peer recommendations, creators and communities over polished advertising.

People want authenticity, not perfection.
They expect brands to stand for something, not just sell.
Trust is increasingly built through social proof, what others say, not what you claim.

Example: Many direct-to-consumer brands grew by focusing on building community-first, not just product-first businesses.

Ask: Rethink your marketing. Can your users help tell your story? Are you creating a space where they want to belong?

Climate Adaptation and Demographic Shifts Are Business Drivers, Not Just Policy Issues

Many entrepreneurs treat climate change or social inequality as “big system problems” outside their lane.

But these forces are already impacting:

Supply chains (e.g. water stress, weather disruptions)
Customer expectations (e.g. demand for ethical sourcing, carbon footprints)
Talent (e.g. Gen Z choosing employers based on values)

Entrepreneurs that embed sustainability early are more resilient, more fundable, and more relevant in future markets.

Example: Fashion startups built entire business models around circular design and transparency, attracting eco-conscious consumers and investors alike.

Ask: Don’t bolt sustainability onto your business. Design with it from day one. It’s no longer a “nice to have”, it’s a growth driver.

5. How can small businesses with limited resources stay agile in the face of rapid change?

n an era of constant disruption, whether driven by technology, climate change, regulation or shifting consumer expectations, agility is no longer a competitive advantage, it’s a survival skill.

For small businesses, agility isn’t about reacting to every new headline. It’s about cultivating a mindset and building practical systems that enable your business to respond quickly, purposefully and intelligently.

Small businesses can develop that capability, without needing the scale or budget of large enterprises:

Develop Strategic Agility Early – Before It Fades

Strategic agility is built on three interconnected capabilities:

Strategic sensitivity: the ability to detect shifts in customer needs, competitor moves and market dynamics

Resource fluidity: the capacity to reallocate people, time and capital as priorities shift
Collective leadership: making fast, aligned decisions across the organization

Small businesses in turbulent environments benefit most from agility. However, as businesses grow, their agility often declines, unless it’s embedded early in culture and process.

What to do:

Hold monthly “pulse checks” with your team to scan for emerging risks and opportunities.
Keep teams and tech stacks modular, so you can pivot or reassign quickly.
Use short, regular stand-ups to support fast aligned decision-making.
Leverage Networks and Technology Intermediaries

While small businesses may lack R&D departments or foresight units, they don’t have to operate in isolation. Technology intermediaries, such as incubators, accelerators, innovation hubs and university partnerships, offer vital support for scanning trends, prototyping ideas and accessing new capabilities.

What to do:

Join a local incubator, coworking space, or innovation hub.
Collaborate with nearby universities or public research institutions.
Tap into open-source platforms, mentorship networks, or cross-sector alliances to accelerate learning and experimentation.

Digitise Strategically & Agility-Proof Your Operations

Digital transformation is one of the most effective enablers of agility, but many small businesses are held back by cost, complexity or limited technical know-how. However, strategic digitisation doesn’t mean massive systems overhauls. Even small, targeted moves can significantly increase flexibility and insight.

What to do:

Start with easy wins: automate scheduling, invoicing or customer communication using low-cost SaaS tools
Use no-code platforms to test new ideas or digital channels
Train your team to be multi-skilled, so they can take on different roles when needed
Build informal alliances with other local businesses to share knowledge, tools and customer insights
Conduct periodic “what-if” stress tests to explore how your business would respond to supply chain disruptions, new regulations or sudden demand shifts

Small businesses don’t need to match large organisations in resources. Instead, they can outmatch them in readiness. Agility for small businesses means being intentional about how you learn, adapt and make decisions in the face of uncertainty. By combining a clear understanding of today’s environment with regular scanning of what’s emerging on the horizon, entrepreneurs can create businesses that are not only responsive but resilient, relevant and ready for the future.

“Agility is not speed. It’s the capacity to adapt with purpose.”

6. What’s a common mistake entrepreneurs make when trying to “predict the future,” and how can they avoid it?

One of the biggest mistakes entrepreneurs make is thinking they need to predict the future, when what they really need is to prepare for a range of possible futures.

As futurist Amy Webb puts it: “Your goal right now isn’t prediction. It’s preparation for what comes next.”

When entrepreneurs lock themselves into a single vision of what they believe will happen, they risk being blindsided by surprise developments or failing to see opportunities that don’t match their expectations.

Common Mistake: Chasing a Single Future

Many entrepreneurs unintentionally fall into several traps when trying to “predict” what’s next:

Overconfidence and Illusion of Control

Believe they can outguess the market based on instinct or past success. Research on overconfidence bias shows that this can lead to poor decisions, over-investment in the wrong ideas, and missed signals of change.

Presentism and Linear Thinking

Assume tomorrow will look like today, just with minor upgrades. But technological and social change is rarely linear. In 2002, Amazon was just an online bookstore and Google ranked behind MSN and Yahoo. Fast-forward to today: these companies are global superpowers. Those who were preparing, not predicting, won.

Confirmation and Survivorship Bias

Tend to look for information that supports what they already believe and overemphasise success stories, while ignoring the thousands of ventures that failed under similar conditions.

Hindsight Bias

When something unexpected happens, people often think “we should’ve seen it coming.” This distorts learning and discourages entrepreneurs from trusting foresight tools in the future.

Prepare, Don’t Predict

Instead of betting on a single future, build readiness for multiple possibilities. This is the foundation of strategic foresight.

Use Scenario Planning

Don’t try to forecast “the future.” Instead, create 2 – 3 plausible future scenarios based on emerging trends.

Example:

What happens if regulation on AI tightens?
What happens if inflation stays high for 3+ years?
What if your core customer segment changes values?

Use each of these scenarios to test your business strategy. What still works? What needs to change?

Stress-Test Your Assumptions

List your key assumptions (e.g. “customers will keep paying for this service,” “competitors won’t copy us”).

Ask: What if this is no longer true?

What would break?

How would we respond?

This avoids blind spots and builds resilience.

Think in Probabilities, Not Predictions

The future isn’t binary (will it or won’t it happen?), it’s a range of probabilities. High-performing entrepreneurs think in terms of:

What’s likely
What’s possible
What’s unexpected
Keep a Decision Log

Capture your assumptions, risks, and rationale at every key decision point. This creates a record to learn from, reduces hindsight bias and makes your thinking visible to investors and your team.

Entrepreneurs who try to “predict the future” often fall into the trap of false certainty. Instead, the most resilient founders prepare for a range of futures. They stay curious, challenge their assumptions, and use structured tools like scenario planning to stay flexible, focused, and ready.

“Foresight isn’t about being right. It’s about being ready.”

7. You teach executive education what’s the biggest mindset shift you’ve seen in leaders who successfully embrace foresight?

The most profound mindset shift I see in leaders who embrace foresight is this:

They move from seeking certainty to becoming comfortable with uncertainty.
They stop asking, “What will happen?” and start asking, “What could happen and what should we do now?”
This shift is not easy, especially for leaders trained to value predictability, KPIs, efficiency, and control. But it is essential.

From Planning to Sensemaking

Traditional leadership is built on forecasting, planning and execution. But in today’s volatile and complex world, those tools are often insufficient. The leaders who thrive now are those who move from a control mindset to a sensemaking mindset.

They ask:

What signals am I seeing that might indicate a deeper shift?
Where are our blind spots?
How might today’s decisions shape the long-term?

They stop managing for the quarter and start thinking in horizons.

As futurist Peter Schwartz puts it: “The purpose of foresight is not to predict the future, but to prepare an organisation to thrive in any future.”

The 4 Key Mindset Shifts in Foresight-Driven Leaders

From Prediction → Preparedness

Successful leaders stop looking for “the answer” and start exploring multiple plausible futures. They embrace tools like scenario planning, futures wheels, and horizon scanning, not to be precise, but to be strategically ready.

From Linear Thinking → Systems Thinking

Instead of solving problems in isolation, they learn to map complex, interdependent systems seeing how social, environmental, technological and economic forces interact. This helps them shift from reactive firefighting to anticipatory strategy.

From Efficiency → Resilience

While operational excellence still matters, they start optimising for adaptability.

They ask: What capabilities do we need to build now to remain relevant in 5–10 years?

From Expertise → Learning Agility

Foresight-led leaders acknowledge that past experience isn’t always the best guide.

They build diverse teams, seek out weak signals and remain open to reframing assumptions.

What It Looks Like in Practice

A retail CEO shifting from quarterly product launches to exploring how demographic shifts and AI might redefine consumption.
A public-sector executive learning to use futures thinking to engage stakeholders in long-term policy development rather than short-term fixes.
A manufacturing leader investing in capabilities not because they’re needed now but because scenarios suggest they’ll be vital later.

These leaders begin to operate like explorers, not just operators.

The biggest mindset shift is not technical, it’s cognitive and cultural. Foresight teaches leaders to become more curious, flexible and resilient to hold space for ambiguity while still taking action today. Once this shift happens, leaders begin to ask better questions, make more informed decisions, and guide their business toward preferred futures, not just probable ones.

“Strategic foresight doesn’t eliminate uncertainty. It gives us the courage and tools to navigate it.”

8. How can entrepreneurs leverage networks or partnerships to enhance their strategic foresight efforts?

The complexity of today’s world from technological acceleration to societal shifts, means that meaningful foresight must be collective, diverse and cross-disciplinary.

Entrepreneurs who actively leverage networks and partnerships extend their foresight capacity beyond the limits of their own expertise, team or industry. They tap into diverse lenses, unconventional sources, and emerging ideas all of which help surface weak signals and expand their view of what’s possible.

Why Networks Matter in Foresight Strategic foresight depends on the ability to scan widely, sense change early and interpret signals across systems. Entrepreneurs sometimes operate in echo chambers connected mainly to peers, investors and advisors within their own sectors.

By building deliberate partnerships across boundaries, entrepreneurs:

Access different mental models and challenge their assumptions
Spot trends earlier by engaging with those on the fringe or in future-facing disciplines
Co-create scenarios and experiments with partners who bring new capabilities or data
Anticipate ripple effects by seeing how adjacent industries are evolving

Where to Look for Strategic Partnerships

Cross-Sector Collaborations

Engage with partners in industries adjacent to yours. Trends often migrate what begins in fashion or fintech might soon affect education, logistics or agriculture.

Academic & Think Tank Relationships

Universities and foresight labs often publish deep trend analyses.

Innovation Hubs & Accelerators

These are not just for early-stage support, they are rich environments for trend spotting, peer learning and access to global foresight conversations.

Creative & Cultural Collaborators

Work with artists, storytellers and designers to explore emerging possibilities through experiential foresight.

From Network to Foresight Engine

Entrepreneurs who successfully turn their networks into foresight engines:

Make learning intentional, regularly connect with future-facing communities
Invite dissent and diversity, not just people who confirm their thinking
Share foresight tools, like STEEP scans or futures wheels across their ecosystem
Co-create with partners, explore pilots or scenarios together to shape shared futures

Tapping into the right networks helps you find those distributed fragments of the future faster.

Strategic foresight is not a solo sport. Entrepreneurs who intentionally cultivate future-focused networks and partnerships gain access to broader signals, sharper insights and collaborative paths to innovation. In a world of accelerating change, the ability to sense and shape the future together is one of the most powerful advantages an entrepreneur can build.

Don’t just network to grow your business. Network to grow your imagination about what’s next.

9. What’s your one piece of advice for entrepreneurs who want to future-proof their ventures today?

Build the habit of looking beyond your current business model and start scanning the horizon with intention. Future-proofing is no longer a luxury or a long-term strategy exercise. It’s become a core responsibility of leadership, one of the most essential job requirements in today’s fast-changing world.

The future doesn’t arrive all at once. It starts as a whisper – in fringe communities, in overlooked markets, in weak signals. Entrepreneurs who train themselves to listen early, interpret what they see, and act with clarity will be the ones who not only adapt – but lead.
Foresight isn’t just about predicting what’s coming. It’s about building the capacity to shape your own preferred future.

This means being proactive rather than reactive. It means:

Asking better questions about the long-term impact of today’s decisions
Anticipating disruptions before they become crises
Investing in capabilities, not just efficiencies
Whether you’re running a startup or scaling a venture, one thing is certain: you can’t future-proof by standing still

As technology accelerates innovation across industries, and as fringe trends go mainstream faster than ever, don’t wait to adjust. Start creating the conditions for the future you want to lead.

My Advice in Practice

Make foresight a monthly habit: Review trends, scan weak signals, talk to people outside your industry
Build scenarios: Explore at least two or three plausible futures and stress-test your product, service or business model against each.
Design with intention: Align your choices today with the future you want to create.
Start small, but start now. The entrepreneurs who succeed in the next decade won’t be those who guessed right but those who were ready, resilient, and responsive.

Don’t wait for the future to happen to you. Build the capability to sense it, interpret it, and act on it intentionally. Future-proofing isn’t about certainty. It’s about readiness, clarity, and courage in a world that won’t stop changing.

10. Where can our audience learn more about your work or connect with you?

deidre@future-fit.co.za

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